Cassandra: one who speaks a prophecy that no one heeds.
A friend of mine (actually his wife) was cleaning out his collection of many years of books, cowboy boots, framed certificates, and other cherished stuff when he found three 1996 pamphlets published by The Worldwatch Institute, an independent, nonprofit environmental research organization in Washington, DC. founded in 1974 and still going strong. My friend thought I might be interested in them. One of them, “Climate of Hope: New Strategies for Stabilizing the World’s Atmosphere” published in June 1996, prompted me to think about what were their predictions and did they come true? That is the subject of today’s blog.
Quotes directly from Worldwatch Paper #130 “Climate of Hope” June 1996:
- “Climate change is likely to be erratic, disruptive, and unpredictable. . . The incidence of floods, droughts, fires and heat outbreaks is expected to increase in some regions.”
- “Recent changes in global climate trends are almost certainly related to the rapid buildup of greenhouse gases.”
- “Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, letting in visible light from the sun but trapping heat near the earth’s surface.”
- “Since carbon dioxide is a virtually inevitable product of fossil-fuel-based energy system, efforts to stabilize the climate will at some point have to require a fundamental revamping of that system. Exactly how to do this and at what cost have been subjects of considerable uncertainty and vehement debate.”
There are several greenhouse gases, including methane (hence the “target” on the backs of farting cows) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs, HFCs) which are manmade chemicals that have been largely phased out because of their depletion of the ozone layer. Sulfur gas, also from fossil fuel burning, is not a greenhouse gas but does produce acid rain. Stringent emission standards in the 90’s by most industrialized countries have significantly reduced the amount of sulfates in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is the largest greenhouse gas by volume in our atmosphere, and carbon dioxide level measurement have become a standard proxy for predicting world-wide temperature increases.
Prior to the industrial revolution in the 1800’s carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere hovered just below 300 parts per million (ppm). In 1996 the level was 360 ppm. In order to slow global warming the carbon dioxide level will have to be below 500 ppm. Our world-wide carbon dioxide level is currently 420 ppm. “A 450 ppm target means cutting emissions by more than half by 2050. A level of 500 ppm, which would accelerate global warming, could be reached by 2050 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced.” (1996) Because carbon dioxide is a “long-lasting” gas in our atmosphere it’s effect on global temperature is cumulative over decades, so that if we (the world) wanted to return to 1996 levels we (the world) would have to go to zero carbon dioxide emissions, an impossible task.
More words from the 1996 Cassandra:
“We are still a long way from stabilizing the global climate, a far more complex challenge than repairing the ozone layer. Even with quick action, some greenhouse gases will linger in the atmosphere for centuries. Still, close observers note that a climate of hope has crept into negotiations recently. Insurance companies, small island nations, and others with major interests in a stable climate have re-shaped the diplomatic playing field. Finally, the time for serious policymaking may be at hand.”
Remember, these words are from 1996. As Yogi Berra said: “It’s like deja vu all over again.”
Meanwhile, as Stephen Colbert says occasionally,
Cause of the Vaping Lung Injury
In my last blog I reviewed a pathological study of lung tissue in 17 patients with the vaping related lung injury which showed no damages indicative of lipoid or oil-caused pathology. The researchers concluded that vitamin E oil was not the culprit, and that the lung injury was similar to that seen from inhalation of a toxic gas and not the inhalation of oil. They did not know what that “toxic gas” was. The CDC has just released a study of 29 patients suggesting that the offending agent might actually be inhaled vitamin E acetate because they found that in the injured lungs. They also admitted that other unknown agents might be causing the injury.
Meanwhile, hospitals are reporting an increase (one a week in some places) of a hyperemesis syndrome, (persistent, prolonged vomiting), in heavy users of recreational marijuana. First identified in 2004 it can be difficult to diagnose as several other causes have to be ruled out with x-rays and lab tests, but it is increasing in states that have legalized recreational marijuana.